Letters 02 – 10 – 2012

An open letter to Bill McKibben 

Bill McKibben,

Reps. Klein and Cheney want a renewables purchase standard, RPS, and have invited you to help out. You rightly state Vermont cannot do it alone, etc. Even Germany cannot do it alone either. Even if the US were to disappear, its “CO2 hole” would be filled in about 7 years by others. Siemens estimated the cost of Germany’s efforts at 1.7 TRILLION euros, or $2.26 trillion, by 2030.

If the US were to follow Germany’s course, the cost would be about ($14.5 trillion, US GDP)/($3.5 trillion, German GDP) x $2.26 trillion = $9.36 trillion. It is 100% sure, the US will NOT follow on that course anytime soon, if ever, and almost all other nations, especially developing nations, do not have the resources, and/or the willingness, to follow Germany.

The Energy Information Administration, EIA, is projecting the world’s energy consumption to increase by 53 percent, from 505 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 770 quadrillion Btu in 2035. See the figure 12 spreadsheet of the report. Worldwide, the renewables fraction of total consumption will increase from 10.6% in 2010 to 15.2% in 2035, the fossil fraction will decrease from 84.1% to 79.1%

Note: 1,055 Btu = 1 Joule; a quadrillion = 10 to the power 15

This means significantly greater quantities of CO2 will be emitted in 2035 than in 2010 and that any efforts made by Germany to reduce its CO2 emissions will be extremely insignificant regarding global warming. Even if all of Europe were to reduce its CO2 emissions to zero, the increase by other nations would be about twice as great as Europe’s decrease.

World CO2 emissions (in 1,000 million metric tonnes) were 29.89, 31.63 and 33.51 in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively, projected by the EIA at 33.51 x 1.5 = 50.27 in 2035.

China, the US, Europe and Germany emitted (in 1,000 million metric tonnes) 7.46, 5.27, 4.3 and 0.79 in 2009, respectively.

China, the US, Europe and Germany projected emissions are (in 1,000 million metric tonnes) 11.7, 6.4, 4.4 and 0.55* in 2030, respectively. *Germany’s CO2 emissions target for 2030 is 55% below the 1990 Kyoto base year, or (1 – 0.45) x 1.232 = 0.55.

Conclusion: The above data indicates Germany’s (quixotic?, misguided?, irrational?) exuberance towards renewables will make no global warming and/or climate change difference, but will adversely affect Germany’s future economic well-being, because it will end up with an energy systems setup that will have at least 2 times the levelized (owning+O&M) cost of competitor nations that did not follow Germany.

Germany is implementing renewables through subsidies more so than other nations, because it has the excess capital to do so, and because it claims to want to set an example to the world. A bit of chest beating; gorillas do it in the jungle.

– Willem Post



Fuller clarifies testimony quoted in TNR article

Thanks for the props!

I had meant to say: Private insurance premiums paid $19.5 million in increased hospital taxes and fees to plug last year’s $26 million state budget deficit.

At some point folks have to own this .

– Craig Fuller


Notes & Events

Fri. February 10th: The Stowe Republican Town Committee will meet at the Ten Acres Lodge for their monthly breakfast. Main topic of discussion will be preparation for the Feb 15th health care forum. All welcome to attend.

Wed. February 15th: The Stowe Republican Town Committee will be sponsoring a public forum on healthcare reform, 7 pm at the Stowe Fire & Rescue Building. Speakers will include Rutland Treasurer Wendy Wilton (Finance Issues), Bob Gaydos (Insurance Strategies and impact on Businesses), and Dr. Bill Minsinger (Impact on medical care and Dr. Patient relations).

Sat. February 18th: “Green Mountain Care: what every Vermonter should know” will be presented at 10 am at the Wells Village School on Route 30.” The event is free and the general public is encouraged to attend this event regarding the impacts of Vermont’s health care law, Act 48. The educational event is hosted by the Wells Republican Committee. Guest speakers for the event will be State Senator Randy Brock, Rutland area physician Daniel McCauliffe, MD, and Rutland Treasurer Wendy Wilton.


We look forward to your feedback, tips, and comments. Please send them to rob@truenorthradio.com.